Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Nebraska

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Nebraska in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Nebraska in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.0% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.68) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.12).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4377 5.70%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.6085 -1.88%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1744 -2.69%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0480 -0.37%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0285 -1.71%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1335 1.09%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0214 -0.50%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.3238 2.79%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0302 0.15%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0196 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4858 -6.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2456 -3.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0516 0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0587 -0.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0730 1.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0107 -0.15%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3434 6.75%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.2295 2.90%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0747 -1.36%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0730 2.12%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0890 -0.27%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1121 -1.06%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5801 0.47%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0409 -0.22%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1904 2.95%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0107 -0.20%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6762 12.78%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0409 0.06%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0552 -0.08%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0036 0.05%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1139 0.71%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0018 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0071 -0.01%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0160 0.07%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7456 1.64%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 190.0000 -3.48%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0162 3.45%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0540 4.65%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1021 1.94%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0179 -9.54%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0685 -33.33%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1229 46.18%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2392 19.70%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0959 -8.56%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0261 11.81%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0522 11.56%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0288 1.96%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,240 for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40141) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-33901).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4615 -$1,311
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6086 -$525
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1561 -$491
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0385 -$203
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0294 -$178
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1403 $33
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0181 -$80
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.3054 -$710
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0249 -$67
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0204 $142
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4729 $171
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2624 $217
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0498 -$66
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0520 $294
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0769 $312
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0113 $97
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3778 $365
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.2579 $934
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0679 -$67
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0588 -$79
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0747 -$330
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1199 $17
Low Income -332.4067 0.5407 -$180
Homeless -446.4262 0.0385 -$17
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1697 $342
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0090 -$18
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7195 $581
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4661.2450 $1,703
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0249 $50
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0475 $33
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0045 -$12
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1131 $103
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0023 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0023 -$13
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0181 $15
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7715 -$159
Median Days in Program 3.2489 200.0000 $650
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0162 $390
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0540 $1,747
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1021 $4,006
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0179 -$863
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0685 $279
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1229 $11,890
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2392 $13,432
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0959 $5,531
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0261 $281
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0522 $2,070
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0288 -$176

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 41.0% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.417) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.008).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4788 -17.30%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5488 28.64%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1436 -1.01%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0663 -6.61%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0147 4.30%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1050 -15.17%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0239 5.10%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2523 -14.31%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0276 2.35%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0276 5.46%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5506 -6.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2007 -3.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0331 0.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0645 -5.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0608 -1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0166 3.05%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4015 14.64%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.2855 -8.69%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0700 -1.83%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0497 1.25%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0829 7.30%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1602 3.42%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1842 14.38%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7274 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0994 0.65%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0147 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.2155 -2.79%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0147 0.73%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0331 -0.94%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.6262 4.58%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 163.0000 5.78%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 105.0000 -2.56%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1455 -0.13%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0162 16.23%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0540 48.24%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1021 123.77%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0179 -78.45%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0685 217.27%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1229 93.10%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2392 237.46%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0959 24.76%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0261 85.77%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0522 -0.75%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0288 -38.98%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 85.2% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.859) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.711).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5225 3.11%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4382 0.83%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2809 -0.48%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1236 1.31%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1067 -2.03%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0674 0.80%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1067 -0.38%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0056 0.49%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0337 -0.33%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0281 -0.55%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4719 -1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2416 -4.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0506 -0.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0674 -0.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1011 -1.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0281 -0.34%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1292 1.37%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0955 -0.24%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0393 -0.21%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1067 0.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0056 -0.14%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0056 0.03%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1742 -0.90%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0056 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0449 1.70%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0112 -0.26%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9326 10.55%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.2191 0.46%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1573 0.78%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0056 -0.28%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0056 0.46%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0056 -0.30%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9775 -5.01%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 219.5000 0.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0162 -3.28%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0540 -2.52%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1021 -17.42%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0179 -17.72%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0685 -42.97%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1229 -44.27%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2392 -47.70%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0959 -27.36%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0261 7.94%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0522 6.42%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0288 1.18%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,357 for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36024) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-27667).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4967 -$944
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4437 $495
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2980 -$38
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0993 -$211
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1060 -$264
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0662 -$57
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0000 $0
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0927 -$142
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0066 -$22
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0265 -$93
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0265 -$98
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4636 -$649
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2583 -$491
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0530 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0795 $121
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0927 $108
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0265 $57
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1457 $248
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0795 $301
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0397 $11
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0993 $144
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0066 -$20
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0000 $0
Low Income -538.7097 0.1457 -$78
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0066 $52
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0464 $84
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0066 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9470 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7880.6900 $722
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.2053 $14
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1722 $30
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0066 $44
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9735 -$393
Median Days in Program 2.2222 213.5000 $474
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0162 -$441
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0540 $1,980
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1021 $4,817
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0179 -$4,658
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0685 $5,883
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1229 $11,678
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2392 $12,239
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0959 $4,218
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0261 -$119
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0522 $1,163
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0288 -$167

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 45.0% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.469) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.019).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.6019 -9.08%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5782 -3.79%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2322 5.61%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0758 3.47%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0284 2.60%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0569 -3.78%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0474 -1.56%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0095 2.51%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0190 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4502 -8.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2749 -6.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0332 -0.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1232 3.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0995 -1.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0142 -0.61%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.3128 -0.67%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1185 -3.13%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0332 -4.80%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0806 -7.44%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0427 1.57%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0047 0.22%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9431 2.70%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0616 2.39%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0142 0.51%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.3744 -2.30%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0047 -1.83%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9479 -9.13%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 214.0000 -6.88%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 173.0000 -4.73%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0806 1.31%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0162 -13.09%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0540 24.04%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1021 100.61%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0179 -105.08%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0685 83.54%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1229 197.31%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2392 171.33%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0959 14.50%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0261 170.44%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0522 -14.87%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0288 -31.13%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 78.7% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.026) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.813).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5018 2.98%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0369 0.45%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1218 -1.75%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3284 -6.74%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2251 0.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1808 -1.13%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0111 0.22%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.4170 -1.73%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0295 -0.99%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0664 1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.6716 4.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0517 -1.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0111 1.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0037 0.18%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.3321 9.13%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2177 0.78%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.2583 -1.21%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0406 -0.56%
Low Income 0.0375 0.7565 2.84%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0701 -1.41%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.2620 1.66%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0443 -0.04%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2103 -1.51%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5904 2.06%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0148 -0.13%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0037 -0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.0923 0.41%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0185 0.14%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0295 -0.10%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.1070 0.39%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.0701 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.7085 1.05%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 139.5000 -0.56%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0162 -11.00%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0540 -10.16%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1021 -13.89%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0179 -13.06%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0685 -14.63%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1229 -31.42%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2392 0.59%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0959 -3.78%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0261 -28.17%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0522 17.22%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0288 -4.28%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,545 for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15284) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11739).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5072 -$952.35
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0338 -$3.12
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1063 -$139.13
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3527 -$376.10
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2512 $163.16
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1981 $378.99
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0145 $9.42
Race: Black -886.3703 0.3720 -$329.71
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0290 -$5.35
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0676 $63.11
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.7053 $976.11
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0628 -$52.01
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0145 $2.51
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3961 $243.14
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2174 $118.74
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.2609 -$129.18
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0386 $94.93
Low Income -305.7985 0.7246 -$221.59
Homeless 983.9044 0.0580 $57.04
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.2367 -$304.10
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0242 $24.39
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2174 $185.76
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5556 -$157.49
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0145 -$9.13
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0048 -$2.23
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.1063 $17.13
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0193 -$32.05
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0242 -$13.04
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.1353 $14.09
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.0870 -$0.38
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.7440 -$20.74
Median Days in Program 0.5942 154.0000 $91.51
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0162 -$51.40
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0540 $594.03
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1021 $2,201.03
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0179 -$992.77
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0685 $3,068.65
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1229 $1,747.42
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2392 $4,872.36
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0959 $679.88
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0261 $1,488.14
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0522 $2,274.83
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0288 -$290.22

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 42.8% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.43) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.002).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5662 -15.62%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0183 -1.48%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.1598 -14.42%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.4475 -31.31%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1644 -26.97%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.2557 -0.43%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0274 -0.04%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2740 0.12%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0548 -0.86%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0685 13.51%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.6941 -18.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0502 5.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0046 -0.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0137 2.60%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2100 0.46%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.4840 9.56%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0183 0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.3744 -2.67%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0046 0.13%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0091 0.51%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.1096 -9.71%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.5342 -2.69%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 209.0000 -6.82%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1416 -4.87%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0162 12.36%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0540 51.73%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1021 59.53%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0179 -76.63%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0685 -97.55%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1229 177.91%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2392 168.94%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0959 60.42%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0261 132.67%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0522 -38.32%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0288 -3.35%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.8% for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.315) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.576).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4735 3.79%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4630 5.03%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2270 -1.95%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1150 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1109 -0.70%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1218 2.83%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0140 -0.33%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1357 -2.18%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0029 0.28%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0347 -1.06%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0217 0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4281 -0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2186 0.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0253 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0550 1.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1361 -9.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0416 -2.18%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1612 1.39%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0350 -0.32%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0718 -2.55%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0765 1.66%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0017 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0077 0.16%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0634 0.59%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0099 -0.07%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0167 0.31%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0024 -0.06%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8466 26.87%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0058 -0.09%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.2220 -0.85%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0064 -0.06%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0048 -0.05%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 -0.05%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0021 0.22%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0009 -0.05%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 42.0000 -1.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0162 2.73%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0540 8.33%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1021 10.34%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0179 -0.82%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0685 20.31%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1229 11.59%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2392 30.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0959 5.68%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0261 10.18%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0522 8.88%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0288 0.99%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,375 for Nebraska for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40600) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34225).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4822 -$1,338
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4791 $731
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2312 $52
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1100 $190
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0908 $362
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1272 $192
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0125 -$16
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1392 -$407
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0028 -$7
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0307 -$171
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0208 $222
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4265 -$752
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2178 -$474
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0259 -$56
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0586 $123
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1399 $10
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0418 -$210
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1875 $86
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0351 -$41
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0588 -$300
Veteran -913.8967 0.0698 -$64
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0017 $3
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0078 $5
Low Income 634.4633 0.0571 $36
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0075 -$26
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0136 $26
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0018 -$19
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8892 -$195
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6953.1300 $1,816
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0040 $3
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.2132 $97
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0060 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0056 -$4
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0001 -$1
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0013 $14
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0010 $2
Median Days in Program 0.8717 41.0000 $36
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0162 $600
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0540 $2,310
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1021 $4,870
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0179 $203
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0685 $4,288
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1229 $8,343
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2392 $12,315
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0959 $4,126
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0261 $1,086
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0522 $2,681
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0288 -$146

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x